C65 La Ferrara, Eliana Ventura, Gustavo L13 B22 Bies, Susan Schmidt Schaling, Eric E66 C1 by Kurmann, Andre L79 Herkenhoff, Kyle F. C46 R20 Kavajecz, Kenneth A. M53 J7 H27 This share depends negatively on the liquidity value of money, positively on the average duration of nominal borrowing, and positively on the short-run increase in the real interest rate. P10 Fawley, Brett W. Pedro Gete, and Athena Tsouderou Working Paper 2020-047A The state-forecasting experiments suggest that large models with industrially-disaggregated data tend to have higher predictive ability for industrially-diversified states. K12 C93 F44 St. Louis, MO 63166 _____ The views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve System, or the Board of Governors. F37 Anton Cheremukhin and. Duffy, John N6 Birinci, Serdar G32 E02 Garriga, Carlos Charly Porcher, by We construct a real-time dataset (FRED-SD) with vintage data for the U.S. states that can be used to forecast both state-level and national-level variables. B00 E41 E00 To validate our model's mechanisms, we present new facts on the variation in job offers, acceptance rates, and reservation wages over time. O56 Kool, Clemens J.M. Wong, Tsz-Nga D74 This is why Isaac Newton spent so much effort in his Principia Mathematica to deal with the law of motion under air friction. M2 O18 by E60 F10 updated G22 January 2020. We contrast our findings for the U.S. with estimates for 11 high-income countries and document substantial differences in the magnitude of immigrant wedges across countries. L16 Chrystal, K. Alec Karabarbounis, Marios Petrella, Ivan J52 Pintus, Patrick A. G33 To evaluate their potential effects, we develop and estimate a dynamic model of college enrollment, performance, and graduation. Wong, Tsz-Nga Christopher J. Waller Calomiris, Charles W. B. Ravikumar econlowdown FRASER has added the Federal Reserve Bank of Clevelands working paperspreliminary research conducted by the economists of the 4 th Districtfrom 1981-1995. Mueller, Willi D00 Burkhauser, Richard V. Chan, Kam N47 H44 K2 D63 O3 L22 Komunjer, Ivana Vandenbroucke, Guillaume Y40 Subhayu Bandyopadhyay N60 Working Paper 2020-010B H74 D84 Unemployment benefits are the most effective tool to stabilize income for borrowers, who are the hardest hit during a pandemic, while liquidity assistance programs are the most effective if the policy objective is to stabilize employment in the affected sector. Novy, Dennis H1 P1 N30 Andolfatto, David E43 Sapriza, Horacio Wilson, Paul W. Tepper, Jonathan (Managed by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. N75 Hirata, Hideaki David Andolfatto Thomas McInish. Marchesiani, Alessandro P24 Working Paper 2020-035B Tepper, Jonathan N41 J44 Sapriza, Horacio . Chiodo, Abbigail J. P23 any author K3 Cooke, Diana A. M40 We develop a quantitative theory of mortality trends and population dynamics. A22 D92 P13 Ritter, Joseph E19 Coto-Martinez, Javier Using a variety of economic and financial market metrics, this article examines how the economy and financial markets evolved in response to the five tightening episodes enacted by the FOMC since 1983. P16 Cai, Jie (April) Keightley, Mark P. Q20 August 2020. P44 H54 E31 Santamaria, Clara Williams, Marcela M. Sinclair, Tara M. Ramey, Valerie A. Bhattarai, Saroj YiLi Chien Mathematical and Quantitative Methods F30 Ana Maria Santacreu L44 J81 and HsinJung Yu Working Paper 2020-007C H N26 Y90 D01 Conesa, Juan Carlos Davis, Angela K. Roy, Amlan G15 I2 The welfare losses of net importers are lower in a world with high trade barriers, while the reverse is the case for net exporters. O43 B53 O43 D31 O42 C25 O25 N42 Benigno, Gianluca I30 G23 I30 G10 The FOMC abandoned monetary aggregates in October 1982, but preserved the Feds commitment to price stability. K42 Fuller, David L. Liu, Haoming Savickas, Robert C70 Miller Jr., Thomas W. The mapping implies properties that are distinct from those in models with private information about endowments. J60 May 2020. N11 We use an analytically tractable model to show that the Ramsey planner's decisions to finance stochastic public expenditures under uninsurable idiosyncratic risk implies a departure from tax smoothing. K41 F4 Q21 Evan Karson and. R1 The second forecasts a national-level variable exploiting the cross-section of state data. H52 G12 J23 Weicher, John C. N00 H42 L81 J43 R39 Weicher, John C. R15 Anderson, Richard G. Y3 N83 O50 B12 We find that there are industry groupings that comove because their production networks are intrasectoral and industry groupings that lack inter or intra-sectoral classification, but most industries move together. E22 Savascin, Ozge Ursprung, Heinrich W. L68 Kluender, William Wheelock, David C. B22 Courchane, Marsha E39 by D29 Azariadis, Costas D69 Wee, Shu Lin Bibinger, Markus B30 Chen, Huigang J21 Meyer, Andrew P. This paper seeks to explain several key components of the growing regional disparities in the U.S. since 1980: big cities saw a larger increase in the relative wages and relative supply of skilled workers, and a smaller decline in business dynamism. Kevin L. Kliesen N65 J20 C91 Dibooglu, Salahattin K3 I11 updated L88 Christopher J. Neely Miao, Jianjun added L52 H72 Kose, M. Ayhan B50 Bordo, Michael D. added J53 In contrast, in the fifth episode the FOMC began its tightening regime during a deceleration in economic activity and with headline and core inflation remaining well below the FOMCs 2 percent inflation target. C22 L14 Waugh, Michael E. J59 A33 Bies, Susan Schmidt E02 G00 The arrival of a vaccine (even if only a small fraction can be vaccinated in the short run) implies a relaxation of stay-at-home policies and, in some cases, results in an increase in the speed of infection. As the debt limit increases, however, patient agents always hold money but impatient agents prefer not to since it is costly for them to do so given they are facing a positive shadow rate. Thus, industries that are more connected may be more vulnerable to industry-specific economic shocks. December 2019. Serdar Birinci, Fudenberg, Drew G18 Fugazza, Carolina I19 D83 F55 Vandenbroucke, Guillaume any JEL code M11 A32 Ria, Federica N3 The Impact of Health and Economic Policies on the Spread of COVID-19 and Economic Activity Courchane, Marsha P12 Gradojevic, Nikola Working Paper 2020-026C Mendoza, Enrique G. C81 by D92 Peralta-Alva, Adrian N14 Whitelaw, Robert Cavalcanti, Pedro E50 R0 Wesche, Katrin Kemme, David M. by Dinopoulos, Elias D8 Gayle, George-Levi Q11 Measuring Labor Supply and Demand Shocks during COVID-19 G38 Hafer, Gail Heyne Mola, Simona We show that enlisting disaggregate data improves the precision of aggregate effect estimates, relative to using aggregate time series alone. added Importantly, it is the model's ability to reproduce these empirical changes that enables it to generate the observed trends in unemployment flows. L29 O15 H50 P42 Bandyopadhyay, Sudeshna C. P41 M19 Christopher J. Neely, D5 We also detail the sources of the differences between our findings (1) and (2) from existing research. J22 ---Optimal Debt and Taxes in an OLG Model with Uninsurable Income Risk, FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research, A Comparison of Fed "Tightening" Episodes since the 1980s, Optimal Fiscal Policies under Market Failures, The Closing of a Major Airport: Immediate and Longer-Term Housing Market Effects, The Determination of Public Debt under both Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Uncertainty, Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Real Time, Policy Interventions in Sovereign Debt Restructurings. P51 Chauvet, Marcelle Mola, Simona Zhou, Guofu N70 We study how fluctuations in oil tanker rates, oil exports, shipowner profits, and bunker fuel prices are determined by shocks to the supply and demand for oil tankers, to the utilization of tankers, and to bunker fuel costs. Fiscal Dominance Keran, Michael W. J64 C52 Hafer, R. W. Singh, Aarti Galvao, Ana B. We then simulate the time series of crude death rates for 87 countries from 1960 to 2018. Dwyer, Jr., Gerald P. Nickerson, David B. D21 H49 N1 B49 C16 G21 H72 Berka, Martin Gyles, Michelle T. Mercan, Yusuf September 2020. R28 Auray, Stphane J0 This latter property is shown to open the door to business cycles and depressions driven entirely by speculation. Pedro Brinca, Joao B. Duarte, and Bibinger, Markus Q58 Kahn, Charles Fabre, Alice N57 by H31 Kluender, William October 2020. N36 D02 Net importers of these goods are relatively worse off during a pandemic than net exporters. Coughlin, Cletus C. Pretend you are at the helm of an economics department. M4 R31 A G20 N67 Ahn, Byung Chan F47 Our calibrated model matches the pre-recession distribution of auto vintages and the liquid-wealth-to-income ratio, and exhibits a large vehicle sales decline in response to a mild decline in expected permanent income due to a transitory slowdown in income growth. Ghent, Andra C. D31 L51 Goncalves, Silvia Q48 K34 F59 United States Universities and research institutions in United States. L0 International Chau, Nancy Spagnolo, Fabio Schwartz, Anna J. K D02 by Steven J. Davis, Dingqian Liu and Xuguang S. Sheng. Holter, Hans Menzio, Guido D50 Between the months of February and April of 2020, average weekly market hours dropped by 6.25, meanwhile 35% of commuting workers reported switching to remote work arrangements. Keen, Benjamin D. Services from the StL Fed . H53 Hein, Scott E. Q41 D72 R30 Ebsim, Mahdi D60 Bauer, Michael D. K20 Jordan, Jerry L. Eggs in One Basket: Security and Convenience of Digital Currencies Tam, Xuan S. D03 L89 Liao, Wei J50 Yu, Zhixiu P59 L74 N63 D74 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102 Batten, Dallas S. E26 Fabel, Oliver Veldkamp, Laura O11 Rodolfo E. Manuelli, Nair, Suresh K. Wang, Pengfei R12 K36 Ho, Giang Y3 Q0 Chen, Yunmin We study the role of financial development on the aggregate and welfare implications of reducing trade barriers on imports of physical capital and intermediate inputs. F49 Wahrenburg, Mark R11 C34 D20 Hamann, Franz Regional Economics, Author H59 G31 Hedlund, Aaron The episode illustrates how Volcker used a change in operating procedures to alter policy fundamentally, and later adapt the procedures to changed circumstances without abandoning the foundational features of the policy. R21 Hagstromer, Bjorn O'Dea, Dennis Each effect is measured as a multiplier: the unit change in output of a one unit change in government spending. Cheng, I-Hui updated Gradojevic, Nikola A positive national debt is often rationalized either by the assumption of dynamic inefficiency in an overlapping-generations (OLG) model, or by the hypothesis of heterogeneous-agents and incomplete-markets (HAIM) in an infinite horizon model. Lee E. Ohanian, Diana Van Patten, by F43 D24 We show that (i) public debt can be a liability instead of net wealth, despite insufficient private liquidity to support private saving and investment, and (ii) such a debt policy can dramatically change the government's optimal tax scheme since the sign and magnitude of the optimal quantity of debt dictate the sign and magnitude of optimal taxes as well as the priority order of tax tools (such as a labor tax vs. a capital tax) in financing the public debt. Lipsey, Robert E. Yang, C.C. Krapf, Matthias C40 K1 Working Paper 2018-006A by Fernando Cirelli, Emilio Espino, and Juan M. Snchez "Designing UISAs for Developing Countries", Working Paper 2018-005A by David Kohn, Fernando Leibovici, and Hakon Tretvoll "Trade in Commodities and Business Cycle Volatility", Peel, David Guerrero, Rodrigo Pakko, Michael R. Rasche, Robert H. Corbae, Dean P48
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